By Maggie LaNoue
Contributing Writer
ALBION — At a moment when national indicators seemed poised to turn negative, economist Michael Horrigan, president of the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, told attendees at Albion’s October Economic Club luncheon that Calhoun County has so far “dodged a bullet.”
Horrigan spoke to a small audience, about a dozen people, gathered at one table in the Mary Sykes Room at Albion College. The talk was introduced by Billy Beers, president and CEO of the Greater Albion Chamber of Commerce. The presentation took place during the week of the federal government shutdown, which temporarily halted most national economic reporting. “The only part of the Federal Statistical System open right now is the CPI staff,” Horrigan noted. “It’s a very complicated time in D.C.”
Horrigan, who has led the Upjohn Institute since 2019 after a long career directing national employment, unemployment, and inflation programs at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, presented new data showing that Calhoun County’s labor market has rebounded faster than neighboring Jackson and Kalamazoo Counties. Employment levels have now surpassed their 2019 highs, and local wage growth has been steady even as national hiring slows.
“Calhoun County has actually done relatively well,” Horrigan said. “Its employment levels are now above where they were before the pandemic.”
He cautioned, however, that some indicators are not as reassuring. One key warning signal economists watch is the inversion between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields. “If the return on a 10-year treasury falls below the return on a two-year treasury, that tends to be correlated with the economy going into recession,” he explained. “It went negative before the Great Recession, negative before the 2001 downturn, and it did go negative last year.” As of now, he said, that indicator has climbed back into positive territory. “In some ways, that is one sign that the bullet has been dodged,” he said. But he added that real disposable personal income has weakened recently, and consumer confidence, responsible for about two-thirds of GDP, “can change things on a dime.”
Horrigan explained that the occupational forecasts for Calhoun County were built using a macroeconomic framework developed by Moody’s Analytics. That model combines county-level employment projections with state-level data on occupational shares, allowing Upjohn researchers to estimate how local industries—and the jobs within them—will evolve through 2029. By linking Moody’s broader macroeconomic assumptions with Upjohn’s county data, the model helps reveal which types of jobs are likely to remain in the highest demand in Calhoun County.
Bruce Nelson, interim executive director of the Albion EDC, stated that the data matched his observations. “Business activity is slightly tamped down given the uncertainty at the national level,” he said. “Growing foot traffic downtown is always a challenge, and with the road construction, general economic uncertainty, and inflation, it has been a weak year for retail trade.” Nelson said demand for housing remains strong and that the shortage continues to drive interest in development.
Albion real-estate agent Joe Verbeke agreed. “Albion trails the City of Jackson by only about $16,000 in median sold price,” he said. “So, I’d say that prices are catching up.” He added that solar construction workers once comprised 15 percent of his rental base, but now account for about five percent as projects stabilize.
Albion Interim City Manager Doug Terry said Horrigan’s wage data was very valuable. “Because I have four union contracts I administer,” he said, “the hourly rates help me look at similar job titles and education levels, in government growth.”
Local manufacturer and developer Bill Dobbins said the presentation confirmed what he sees in the regional economy. “Innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurship are at the heart of all successful companies,” he said.
During Horrigan’s research he discovered that Calhoun County contains one of the highest concentrations of utility-scale solar fields in Michigan. “I didn’t know Calhoun County was the solar panel capital of Michigan,” he said.
Sheridan Township Supervisor Dick Porter stated that approximately 4,400 acres of land north of Albion are already generating solar power, with an additional 300 acres expected to come online soon. Farmers are earning between $1,200 and $3,000 per acre per year on 20-year leases, providing a reliable income stream that helps offset agricultural volatility.
Consumers Energy spokesperson Brian Wheeler, speaking on behalf of attendee Greg Moore, said the utility is preparing for significant regional growth. “We’re developing more energy sources and adding power to our grid from projects such as Jackson County Solar,” he said. “As new businesses look to grow here, we plan carefully to make sure our energy system is ready to serve them and every customer across Michigan.”
Those investments, combined with Ford’s $3 billion BlueOval Battery Park project in Marshall, are reshaping the region’s economy. Horrigan noted that renewable energy and advanced manufacturing often reinforce each other—one builds the grid capacity and construction jobs that the other requires.
Horrigan’s report focused on countywide data, and several attendees wondered how closely those numbers reflect Albion’s experience. Early signs suggest they may not. Several Albion-specific indicators, including housing burden, income levels, and employment patterns, appear to differ from countywide averages. The Upjohn Institute is now helping to gather data for Albion specifically. That report will include updated housing information, local labor force details, and the ways regional trends affect a small manufacturing city with a long industrial history.
The W. E. Upjohn Institute traces its roots to a 1930s trust established by Dr. William Erastus Upjohn, who believed that economic security, job stability, and worker dignity were essential to community well-being. His early efforts included creating cooperative employment programs during the Great Depression to support displaced workers, a mission that evolved into the Institute’s long-standing focus on unemployment, workforce quality, and the impacts of economic conditions on workers. That history resonates in Albion, where labor defined the community for more than a century. The bronze American Molder statue beside the Post Office honors the foundry workers who built Albion’s manufacturing base and shaped the city’s identity.
The luncheon ended with several lingering questions: Why was attendance so small for such an important presentation? Who is responsible for collecting localized economic data for communities like Albion? How well do county averages reflect the economic conditions of smaller cities?
A future story will explore Albion’s specific numbers in more detail, including how food needs show up at the local level. For now, Calhoun County’s quicker-than-expected recovery offers some reassurance, even as uncertainty continues to shape the broader economic picture.
